Do people win in the ticket lottery?

The New York Mets sent emails today to the people who won the recent ticket lottery for opening day and Yankees tickets. Once again, I did not win the lottery. The lottery was installed prior to the 2006 playoffs. Dave Howard, the Mets’ executive vice president decided to abandon the traditional method of making tickets available at box offices because the large number of season tickets left a limited inventory for public sale (Times).

It sounds like a good idea at first glance. Evert has an equal chance to go to select games. It doesn’t matter if you’re a die hard fan or if you just want to re-sell the tickets, you had an equal shot. But as I soon found out, the chance of winning is extremely remote. Since the lottery was installed their has been roughly 6 lotteries to win postseason, Yankees, or opening day tickets. I have yet to win.

After missing out on the chance to go to opening day again, I am wondering how is this fair? I know and hear of people who win almost every time, some just enter once, while I will enter multiple people; family, friends, and go with them but no of them ever win. I miss the days when the most passionate and dedicated fan got to go to the game because they would sit outside in the freezing cold to get tickets or even just wake up early so they could be on the website right as the ticket sales opened.

Minor League Report: Jonathon Niese

Mets.com profiles Jon Niese. "Niese last year pitched for the St. Lucie Mets of the Florida State League, the most competitive Class A affiliate the Mets have and, according to Waits, he's "reached the turning point." Niese may pitch at Double-A Binghamton this year after "getting to the point all pitchers get to," Waits said. Waits said Niese improved his command and his changeup, and he learned how to use the improvement in both areas to his benefit. He won 11 of 18 decisions, producing a 4.27 ERA in 27 starts and 134 1/3 innings in 2007. His hits allowed were a bit high -- 151. But he reduced his walks from 67 in 133 2/3 in 2006 -- all but 10 of the innings at a lower level of Class A -- to 31 in 134 1/3 innings last season. His final 10 starts produced a 4-3 record, but a 3.38 ERA as well."

First Base....Gotay?

The Mets are going into the 2008 season with Carlos Delgado as their starting first baseman. As everyone knows, Delgado just came off his worst season yet and chances are he will not return and be the slugger he used to be. The backup for first base will be on Damien Easily and Marlon Anderson.

Ever since easily tied the game with 2 outs in extra innings against the Rockies I have loved him. He was injured for the second part of last season but played well for most of the first half. Hopefully his age will not get in the way of playing effectively but we will have to wait to the season starts to find out.

The biggest problem I have with Marlon Anderson playing first base is he is our best pinch hitter. He is always clutch and I would rather keep him on the bench for those key spots then put him in the order where he is less effective.

The Mets have almost no depth in the minors at first base. Mike Carp will spend most of season in either AA or AAA and hopefully he will stay healthy which he did not in 2007.

The Mets must teach Ruben Gotay to play first base. Earlier this off-season I have suggested that Gotay should also learn to play outfield because with the new 4 year contract of Luis Castillo when is Gotay going to start there. He needs to learn a new position and after 2008 he could potentially be there new first baseman…. Maybe

I still hate Willie Randolph

The Mets got Johan Santana, the new season is about to start and the Mets are hoping to win the World Series. The thing is, I have not forgotten about last year and I have not let Willie Randolph off the hook. Just because the Mets have a better team than last year I still hate Randolph. I still believe he is the most at fault for the disappointing finale of last season. I wanted him to have been fired after last season but he was not. So as the season starts do not let Willie off the hook, remember how much it hurt last year and if Willie does not get the team to play well… bye bye.

Espn Rankings

Espn.com ranks the top 100 prospects in baseball. There was only one mets prospect on that list and suprisingly it was Fernando Martinez at #10.

"It's been fashionable this offseason for some writers to bash the Mets' top prospects, mostly vis-à-vis the Johan Santana trade talks, but this criticism has been way overblown. Martinez's 2007 performance doesn't impress on a quick look, but consider these facts: He played the entire season at age 18 in AA; and he was hitting .309/.372/.409 as late as May 25 before the effects of a contusion on his left hand ruined what remained of his season. He was shut down on June 23 and missed the rest of the year. Martinez shows huge raw power in BP that will make its way into his game performances, and he has a solid approach with good pitch recognition for someone so young. He has good range in center and a plus arm if he outgrows center field and has to move to right. To put his development in more perspective, if he'd played a full year at AA and hit .290/.360/.410 or so, he would have been on pace to debut in the big leagues at 19 or 20 and be a big league regular before he turned 21. He's going to be a star, but everyone has to bear in mind how young he is to keep his performance in perspective."

Mets Get Santana... Finally

The Mets have un-officially traded for Johann Santana for Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey. All that needs to be done is for the Mets to sign Santana to a long term deal within the next 72 hours.

This deal is an absolute steal. First off the Mets traded for one of the best pitchers in baseball without giving up any major league talent. They kept their current team the same and just added a star pitcher. Secondly, the Mets did not trade Fernando Martinez who is now the only big outfield prospect in the Mets system after the departures of Milledge and Gomez. Thirdly, the Mets gave up only 4 prospects when there were previous talks of 6 or 7.

Analysis of Prospects:
The Mets gave up two good prospects, Gomez/Guerra and two bad ones in Humber and Mulvey. Everyone knows Gomez is wicked fast and can play defense but his bat is the biggest question. He has trouble with the breaking balls and does not have much power. He will need to rely on his speed for a lot of his hits because of his inept bat.

Guerra was my favorite prospect. He is extremely young and has almost the same potential as F-Mart except Guerra is a pitcher. Guerra’s fastball was up to 94-95 mph in last year’s minor league camp, which is an increase of four-to-five miles an hour from where he was last season. He also worked hard on his curveball during the offseason, which lagged behind his fastball and changeup. I believe he is the best prospect in the deal, potential wise.

If you have read this blog before you know I strongly dislike Kevin Mulvey. He is regarded as a 4 pitch pitcher who is not afraid to throw any pitch in any given situation, but so can every other pitcher in the majors... His 4 pitches are extremely flat and when he misses up he gets rocked. He is projected to be a 3 or 4 starter but I could see him as a long reliever.

Humber had a lot of potential coming out of college but has been injury plagued his entire career. He has pitched ok in the minors but at age 25 he has just started 1 game in his major league career. I never see him living up to his potential and I believe he will continue to have injuries throughout the rest of his career. He has already had Tommy John surgery early in his career which is never a good sign.

Free agent

The Mets have signed free-agent LHP Ricardo Rincon to a minor-league deal and invited him to spring training.

In 134 appearances during 2004 and 2005, Rincon was 2–2 with a 3.95 ERA while striking out 67 batters and walking 44 through 82 innings pitched.

Look for Bostick

The Mets acquired left-hander Adam Bostick along with lefty Jason Vargas in November of 2006 in exchange for right-handed relievers Henry Owens and Matt Lindstrom. Last season Bostick pitched for AAA New Orleans. He had a pretty bad year going 6-7 with a 5.66 era, 91 strikeouts, and 45 walks in 21 games (20 starts, 97 innings).

Even though he did not fair too well last season in AAA he pitched very well in the Arizona Fall League (2-0, 2.74 era in 6 starts) and is pitching well in the Dominican Winter League (0-1, 2.77 era in 3 starts). This is the best Bostick has ever pitched since being drafted sixth round of the 2001 First-Year Player Draft out of Salem High School (PA). I would keep an eye out for him because if someone gets hurt he could sneak up and start for the Mets if Humber and Mulvey struggle.

Minor League Signings

The Mets have Mets signed INF Anderson Machado, RHP Juan Padilla, RHP Joselo Diaz, RHP Andy Cavazos, LHP Ryan Cullen, 3B Fernando Tatis, C Robinson Cancel and C Salomon Manriquez to minor league contracts and invited them to spring training.

Minor League Trade

The Mets completed a minor deal on Saturday when they reacquired outfielder Angel Pagan from the Cubs in exchange for two Minor League players. The trade imports a versatile, 26-year-old switch-hitting outfielder familiar to the organization who provides depth, big league experience and still has Minor League options.

Pagan started 69 games and appeared in 50 others with the Cubs in the two seasons, playing all three outfield positions. He batted .255 with 29 extra-base hits -- nine home runs -- and 39 RBIs in 318 at-bats. He stole eight bases in 11 attempts. He had played in the Mets' Minor League system from 2000 through 2005.

Neither of the players the Mets traded figured prominently in their immediate future. Corey Coles is a nearly 26-year-old left-handed-hitting outfielder who led the Florida State League in batting with .341 average in 2006 and batted .286 with one home run and 31 RBIs in 388 composite at-bats in Class A, Double- and Triple-A last year.

Ryan Meyers is a 22-year-old right-handed reliever who produced a 1-4 record and 2.7 ERA in 41 games and 51 2/3 innings with two Class A teams in 2007.

DWL Update:

I’m sure many of you have noticed my lack of coverage of the Dominican Winter League. The main reason behind this is players who perform very well there do not play as well in the majors or minors. For example Anderson Hernandez always dominates the DWL offensively batting in the upper .300 last year but can never hit well at the major league level. Former Mets such as Jose Lima are 3-2 in 10 starts with a 2.84 ERA. Alay Soler stunk it up for the Pirates AA team last season going 1-1 with an era of 6 in 39 innings but in 9 games (22 innings) he is 0-1 with an ERA of 1.99 while hitters are batting .183. Here are some of the more important players and how they are doing.

Estrellas de Oriente:
Third Baseman Fernando Tatis is batting .229 with 1 home run, 11 RBI, 5 stolen bases. Catcher Jose A Reyes is batting .217 with 6 RBI. Pitcher Adam Bostick has followed up his strong pitching in the Arizona Fall League (2-0, 2.74 era, 23 strikeouts in 6 games) by going 0-1 with a 2.77 era in 3 games. Outfielder Miguel Negron is batting .221 with 8 RBI, 2 stolen bases, and 10 runs.

Gigantes del Cibao
Outfielder Victor Mendez is batting .257 with 3 home runs, 10 RBI, 2 stolen bases, and 18 runs.

Leones del Escogido:
Outfielder Carlos Gomez is batting .262 with 1 homerun, 6 RBI, 17 runs, and is 10/16 in stolen bases.

Tigres del Licey:
Infielder Anderson Hernandez is actually struggling in winter ball! He is batting just .170 with 11 RBI, 8 runs, and 4 stolen bases. Jorge Sosa is 0-0 with an era of 0 after 5 games (5 innings) and 5 strikeouts.

Don't Rush

As 2008 begins the start of the spring training is in less than 2 months. The Mets have yet to make a trade to acquire a big name pitcher or any pitcher nevertheless. The Mets have not signed a free agent pitcher like Livian Hernandez. So the season is rapidly approaching, and I keep hearing that Mike Pelfrey, Phillip Humber, or even Kevin Mulvey should be the number 4 of 5 starter.

I have no problem with Pelfrey starting out the season in the rotation. Pelfrey will be 24 when the season begins and started 13 games last season and came out of the bullpen twice. He has matured a lot and I strongly believe he is ready to pitch for the Mets the entire season.

Humber will not start the year on the Mets due to Pelfrey being in the rotation along with the fact Humber needs a little more work in the minors. He has been plagued with injuries so even though he is older than Pelfrey he is not as ready to pitch on the major league level. He has made just 1 career start in the majors and in 2008 he will get some starts but will not be a mainstay in the rotation.

The idea to bring Kevin Mulvey up for 2008 and to pitch for the Mets for the majority of the season is ludicrous. Mulvey stayed in AA last season for all but 1 start. Sure he has a lot of potential and is one of our best pitching prospects and the closest one to the majors but the kid has just made 1 start in AAA and the jump to the majors is just too big for someone that struggled at the beginning of the season in AA.

In recent years the Mets have been known for brining there prospects up to early. This was the case in Mike Pelfrey, Lastings Milledge, and Carlos Gomez. Gomez played well when he was called up but often struggled on breaking balls. He had success but most of it was due to his speed. Most people believe he would have been better off staying in AAA. Both Milledge and Pelfrey struggled immensely when they were called up. Pelfrey had trouble executing his pitches and Milledge could not hit a breaking ball.

Because the Mets called Milledge and Pelfrey up too early it severely hurt their value on the trade market. At times Milledge could have been used to trade for players like Barry Zito and Manny Ramirez but do to his struggles he ended up being traded for two mediocre players in Brian Schneider and Ryan Church. What I am trying to say is the Mets can not bring Kevin Mulvey up in 2008. He needs to spend a full season in AAA in order to become the best pitcher he can be.

Lieber Not

The Mets have recently been linked to Pitcher John Lieber. The only question I ask is why. Lieber is 37 years old but looks 50. Last season he only started 12 games due to injury and went 3-6 with a solid 4.73 era. In 2006 he was even worse; 9-11 with a 4.83 era but at least he started 27 games. So why would the Mets want him. I guess they want "experience" or "veteran leadership", but this ex-phillie is no better than humber, pelfrey, and probably even mulvey. So give one of these kids a chance and hopefully the Mets do not waste their time and money on the John Lieber.

Milledge and Burnitz?

Jeromy Burnitz was the Mets first-round draft pick in 1990; he reached Triple-A in 1992 and hit .243. And then hit .227 the next season, and .239 after that. The Mets gave up on him and traded him to Cleveland. He spent almost the entire 1995 season in Triple-A yet again.

In 1996, he was 27 years old and hit 16 career home runs in the majors. Eleven seasons later, he finished with 315 home runs, four 100-RBI seasons and an All-Star Game appearance.

You might not see the similarities between him and Lastings Milledge. Milledge has been hyped for years as the next big thing while Burnitz struggled all throughout his minor league career. Milledge and Burnitz were both first round draft picks with a lot of potential. Milledge quickly excelled unlike Burnitz.

The Mets traded Burnitz who ultimately had a solid career. The Mets traded Milledge who had almost endless potential without giving him a shot. Both players were traded in silly deals and like Burnitz, Milledge will end up having a good career and a better one than Burnitz.

Fun Fact

Last season the Mets started out 21-12. In the next 54 games they went 27-27. The Mets seemingly had a pretty bad season having a loosing record for the majority of it.

Too much excitement for Mulvey

Over at The Star Ledger they profile Mets pitching prospect Kevin Mulvey. "After a slow start, he closed with victories in five of his last seven decisions for the B-Mets. He finished with an 11-10 record and a 3.32 ERA for a last-place team that ended the season 20 games under .500. Along the way, he was selected to pitch in The Futures Game in San Francisco. Mulvey throws all four of his pitches fastball, slider, curve, changeup -- for strikes, as evidenced by his strikeout-to-walk ratio (110-43) in 151 2/3 innings of work last season with Binghamton. Mulvey allowed just four home runs last season."

I have said it many times but I am not very high on Kevin Mulvey. He is projected to be either a 3 or 4 starter. He started off last season pitching pretty poorly. Scouts were saying he had many flaws and he often had very flat pitches. All I am saying is do not get to excited about Mulvey just yet. He has pitched pretty well in the Minors but things happen and he could end up just dissapointing us and becoming a long reliver. So keep an eye out for Mulvey but dont get overly excited about him.

Anti-Blanton

The Mets did not trade for Dan Haren, and they are looking less and less likely to trade for Johan Santana or Erik Bedard. The name Joe Blanton keeps coming up as a possible player for the Mets to trade for.

Blanton was 14–10 with a 3.95 era, 140 strikeouts, 40 walks, in 34 starts last season. In 2006 Blanton went 16-12 but had a 4.82 era with just 107 strikeouts, 58 walks, in 32 games (31 starts). In 2005 Blanton had a lower era of 3.53 but only went 12-12 with 116 strikeouts, and 67 walks in 33 games.

I have a decent amount of problems with Joe Blanton. His career era is 4.10 and he has only had a sub 4 era this year with 3.95 and 2005 with a 3.53. In 2004 he had a 5.63 era and in 2006 he had a 4.82 era. Blanton does not get many strikeouts and gives up a decent amount of walks. He set a career high in K’s this year with 140 and career low of 40. Blanton also has allowed more hits than innings pitched the last two seasons and combing that with a low amount of strikeouts and high amount of walks does not make Blanton a good candidate for the Mets. Blanton has terrible splits as he has a 2.69 era at home but a 5.11 era on the road. Lefties also bat .298 against him.

The Mets would want Blanton to be their ace, but the 27 year old is not capable of that. If the Mets would have to give up Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Aaron Heilman, and possibly more for Blanton I feel it would be a bad trade. The stats don’t lie; Blanton is not an ace and would not be one for the New York Mets.